A week’s a long time in ANC politics — and fortune is fickle.
What prompted President Thabo Mbeki to blurt out so clearly and unequivocally last week that he was in the running for the presidency of the ANC?
The reason is simply that Mbeki is feeling good. He feels that, suddenly, he is ahead in the running for the ANC’s top job and Jacob Zuma, the man we all seem to believe cannot be stopped, is suddenly wavering.
Last week, Mbeki, speaking to (the pro-government) SABC in Windhoek, said: “If in the nominations process the membership of the ANC says ‘We want Thabo Mbeki to continue to be president of the ANC’, you can’t say ‘no’.
“Indeed, if the membership of the ANC feels that I should be the president of the ANC, I’m saying it’s within the culture and traditions of the ANC, and I understand them very well.”
He went on to take a dig at another contender, former Gauteng premier and businessman Tokyo Sexwale, by saying leading the ANC was not about personal ambition but about serving people.
So why is Mbeki so buoyant?
Well, on Sunday City Press reported that Mbeki was leading the field comfortably in Limpopo. The report said that 146 branches had held general meetings to nominate their preferred leaders. Of these branches, 104 nominated Mbeki and only 42 chose Jacob Zuma.
It was a nice fillip for the Mbeki camp, which had also received news that it was leading by a wide margin in Eastern Cape (more than 200 branch nominations for Mbeki compared to Zuma’s 58). In North West, the picture was much the same.
This is why Mbeki was feeling so good last week. Things had changed so dramatically in ANC branches that it was no longer a given that Zuma would be singing Awuleth’ Umshini Wam all the way to the Union Buildings.
This bit of good news gave Mbeki confidence to speak, to feel that he could send a signal to his supporters that they should forge on because he truly believes that victory is within his grasp. But a week is a long time in politics. Words uttered in haste could very easily come back to haunt one.
By Friday, Independent Newspapers was reporting that the picture had changed in Limpopo after 285 of Limpopo’s 400 ANC branches made their nominations. It said 165 ANC branches had so far named Zuma as their choice for president, compared to 106 which nominated Mbeki.
Sexwale received 13 branch nominations and his fellow businessman Cyril Ramaphosa received two.
As you can see, a week is a long time in the ANC succession battle. Mbeki was up last weekend, but is down this week.
Mbeki’s fortunes will continue to change. On Friday, Mbeki was said to have emerged as the clear front- runner in Western Cape.
Members of Mbeki’s team are sitting in the provinces counting the support they are getting from the ANC branches. The same goes for Zuma’s and Sexwale’s teams. It is not known if Ramaphosa, who has steadfastly refused to comment on the race, has a team working for him.
Over the next few weeks the branches making nominations will go to provincial general councils at which nominations will be made by the provinces. These will be closely run races and lobbying will be hard.
To be nominated for the position of president of the ANC one has to have been nominated by at least two provinces. Mbeki might have secured Western Cape and Eastern Cape already.
Mbeki’s comments last week signal that the ANC succession race has changed in character. Hurling insults at each other will continue, but the action has now moved to each and every branch of the ANC as the branches decide who to nominate.
The nominations are now evenly split between Mbeki and Zuma. One week, Mbeki will be buoyant, like last week, and the next week Zuma will be buoyant.
If Ramaphosa or anyone else stands a chance now, he will have to be nominated on the conference floor in Polokwane. His nomination would then have to be seconded by 25percent of the conference delegates.
Until that happens, the next six weeks will be weeks of hope and fear for both Mbeki and Zuma
http://www.thetimes.co.za/News/Article.aspx?id=604909