South sudans 'birthday' is only on its independence day....9 July.....but i can foresee serious problems in the run up to july 9. Even though the people inevitably opted to secede, issues such as oil, nationality etc are going to create major problems in this area add that to the fact that the North and South have been fighting an ideological, religious,cultural battle for such a prolonged duration.
I dont think Khartoum will go out of its way to intentionally destabilize the situation in the South due to the fact that it is still funding a major war in Darfur and sanctions are beginning to take their tole on the people (look at Egypt and Tunisia for examples of what happens when people are feed up with f***ery). Instead i see this as a ripe opportunity for Muslim fundamentalists (sudan was has previously hosted osama bin laden , even giving him nationality) and the LRA to breed confusion the area in the lead up to July 9th. But hopefully all my fears will be alleviated, because on paper Southern Sudan has the legitimate opportunity to create a truly great black African country if they can learn from the numerous mistakes they and so many other post-colonial African states have committed.