Will Rap Fans Pay More and Fill the Arenas?
nyTIMES 05/07/05
The popularity of Eminem and 50 Cent is undeniable.
While sales of his 2004 album, "Encore," rolling toward 4.7 million copies, Eminem just rallied his faithful with a performance on the annual movie awards on MTV. 50 Cent, meanwhile, is amid a streak of radio ubiquity with singles from his latest album, "The Ma**acre," which, with 4 million copies sold, ranks as the best-selling album of the year so far, and he's soon to appear in his own movie and video game.
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This summer's "Anger Management" tour features Eminem and 50 Cent. Other artists on the bill include Lil Jon, Mobb Deep and D12.
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All of that, however, may not translate into drawing power at the concert box office. As organizers kick off their "Anger Management" tour on Thursday near Indianapolis, the concert business - which relies heavily on aging rock stars and is desperate to reverse a slide in ticket sales - is watching to see how far they can go toward overcoming the rap genre's history of weak sales on the road.
There have been exceptions: the "Roc the Mic" tour featuring Jay-Z and 50 Cent in 2003 proved to be a hot ticket, as did the "Up in Smoke" tour in 2000 with Dr. Dre, Snoop Dogg, Ice Cube and then-rookie Eminem. In other cases, tour organizers have settled for playing limited runs in small venues - out of proportion to their rappers' sales - to hedge their bets and protect profits.
But no rap tour has ranked among the industry's top 10 grossing tours in the last five years (at least), even though rap artists routinely reside in the upper reaches of the Billboard sales charts.
The 22-date "Anger Management" tour, then, reflects one of the most ambitious attempts yet to cross the gulf between sales of CD's and sales of tickets. Eminem and 50 Cent (who will miss the first two dates to work on his movie) will be backed up by a deep bench of talent, including the crunk powerhouse Lil Jon & the Eastside Boyz, Eminem's rap group D12 and protégé Obie Trice, 50 Cent's act G-Unit and expected appearances by Lil Scrappy and Mobb Deep.
"If this tour can't do business," said Gary Bongiovanni, editor of the concert trade magazine Pollstar, "you've got to ask yourself, 'What would?' "
This time, organizers - who include Eminem, the William Morris talent agency and the promoter Clear Channel Entertainment - appear to be gambling heavily that a rap production can deliver the big numbers: they are raising the top ticket price to more than $91, up from $55 the last time Eminem toured under the "Anger Management" banner, in 2002. The average price is projected to be in the $60 range, up from $34 last time.
The increase comes even as the concert business is buzzing over the need to lower prices to reverse last year's industrywide attendance plunge. Some suggest it may hurt the tour's prospects.
"The ticket prices are high for this audience, and I think they'll cut into the business that could otherwise have been done," said Bill Silva, president of the promoter Bill Silva Presents and an organizer of the "Up in Smoke" tour.
But Paul Rosenberg, who is Eminem's manager and president of the rapper's Shady Records label, said: "We're aiming higher than we did last time, but why not? Last time was a success, and we've got 50 Cent, and he's on fire. I think the price is in line with the demand."
So far, industry chatter suggests sales are soft, though Mr. Rosenberg described them as good and added that rap tours typically sell a heavier portion of their tickets to walk-up customers the day of the performance. "No place is going to be close to empty," he said.
Demand for the last "Anger Management" bill - which included the rock band Papa Roach and the rappers Ludacris and Xzibit - was healthy, racking up an average of more than 14,000 tickets a show as it visited more than two dozen cities. The tour grossed an estimated $15 million - certainly not bad but still ranking it a modest No. 34 among the year's major tours, several spots behind Ozzfest and a Green Day/Blink 182 stint.
Even if demand for tickets is higher this time, it will still probably appear out of proportion to sales of the rap stars' CD's. As popular as Eminem, 50 Cent and Lil Jon are, they are playing the same size venues - in fact, some of the very same amphitheaters - as lesser-selling rock bands. Eminem and 50 Cent, for instance, who between them have sold more than 40 million albums in the United States, are booked to play the same buildings as Coldplay, which has sold 7 million albums, and 3 Doors Down, which has sold about 10 million, according to Nielsen SoundScan
Theories about the reasons for that kind of disparity abound. Many - including Mr. Rosenberg - subscribe to the simple explanation that rappers typically just aren't as dynamic to watch as, say, a pyrotechnic rock concert.
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"There's probably a long history of people going to rap shows and not getting as much bang for their buck," he said. "In a lot of rap shows through history, you might've had a couple of M.C.'s and a D.J. on a stage and not much else."
In response, organizers of "Anger Management" are trying to crank up the visual appeal of their show - an investment that, like the rappers' lofty performance fee, is reflected in the higher ticket prices. The organizers are also planning to give away a limited number of CD samplers. With a 40-foot-tall set, ma**ive video displays and a state-of-the-art light show, Mr. Rosenberg said, the fans "are definitely going to get their money's worth."
"I think our production values would kick Coldplay's butt," he said.
Another reason for the genre's long-time doldrums in the live business may come from the way rappers progress in their careers. Many rappers - 50 Cent among them - built their early reputations by appearing on mix tape recordings that are sold on street corners and flea markets, not by touring the country in a van while playing live night after night.
"I don't think there is any touring development, in the traditional sense, of young rap and hip-hop artists," said Mr. Silva, the promoter. "Their careers are based around radio and TV hits, and unless they can get on a big tour early on, it is rare to hear about them playing at clubs and theaters as they build a fan base. Consequently, the typical young star with a platinum record has not laid the foundation to build a tour base from."
In addition, the rap genre may also be a tough sell for young fans or their parents as long as it suffers from its perceived a**ociations with vulgarity and violence. Last year, for instance, the already stumbling "Best of Both Worlds" tour, headlined by the rapper Jay-Z and the R&B singer R. Kelly, nearly imploded when Mr. Kelly accused a member of the rapper's entourage of attacking him with pepper spray. Jay-Z then removed Mr. Kelly from the production and continued the tour with other stars.
Even so, the sales were disappointing, particularly given the artists' enormous CD sales, Mr. Bongiovanni said.
Landing repeated albums at the top of the charts "used to be a good predictor" of ticket sales, he added. "That has changed dramatically, and in the rap and hip-hop area, there's almost no connection."
